Sandown 13:08 — Value Analysis

Friday 12 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 5.0f Class 4 10 runners
Model's most likely VIKING BARBIE 31% model chance · market 15%
★ Best value VIKING BARBIE model 31% vs market 15% · +100%

Vulnerable favourite: MYSTERIOUS TIMES is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 17% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates VIKING BARBIE top (31% chance)
  • ✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
HAVANA GREY STAR
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Richard Hughes
21%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
+112%
3
PERIGORD NOIR
J: Tom Marquand · T: George Baker
20%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
+122%
4
MYSTERIOUS TIMES
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby
17%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
-60%
GOLD REEF CITY NR
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett
12%
Withdrawn
5
PRINCESS IVY
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon
12%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
+147%
6
UNDERDOG
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
12%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
-12%
7
HENLEY ON THAMES
J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
10%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
-45%
8
COURSEYOUDO
J: Luke Morris · T: Tom Lacey
9%
1%
91.0
▼ Edge decreasing
⚠ market disagrees
9
IGROK
J: David Probert · T: Stuart Williams
7%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
+86%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org