Chester 13:30 — Value Analysis

Friday 12 June 2026 · result below

Amateur GTS 7.0f Class 4 11 runners
Model's most likely MISSION COMMAND 19% model chance · market 5%
★ Best value MAXI BOY model 15% vs market 13% · +16%
Why the model rates MISSION COMMAND top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✓ Best suited to today's ground of any runner
  • ✕ Recent form trending the wrong way

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MISSION COMMAND ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Amy Milburn(5) · T: Jennie Candlish
19%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +260%
2
MAXI BOY
J: Mr Eireann Cagney · T: Fionn McSharry
15%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +16%
3
HECTIC
J: Miss Pippa Brown(3) · T: Liam Bailey
13%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +167%
4
MOON BEGINNINGS
J: Mr Fletcher Yarham · T: David Loughnane
12%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41%
5
PAWS FOR THOUGHT
J: Miss Lucy Turner · T: Donald McCain
9%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3%
6
KINGS SCHOOL
J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Gemma Tutty
9%
20%
5.0
 -55%
7
SPIRIT GENIE
J: Mr Jamie Neild · T: Jennie Candlish
8%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -27%
8
LORD CAPULET
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: Kevin Ryan
8%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -61%
9
KINDEST NATION
J: Miss Georgia King(5) · T: Hugo Palmer
7%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +31%
10
CALYXOH
J: Mr H C Swan · T: Patrick Morris
7%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
11
BE FRANK
J: Mr Bradley Furniss(5) · T: Ian Williams
5%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -19%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org