Sandown 13:38 — Value Analysis

Friday 12 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 5.0f Class 4 10 runners

Model's most likely CHARLIE MASON 24% model chance · market 27%

★ Best value SILVER WRAITH model 23% vs market 15% · +46%

Why the model rates CHARLIE MASON top (24% chance)

✓ Strongest class record of the field for this grade
✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	CHARLIE MASON ★ Top Rated J: Rossa Ryan · T: Tony Carroll	24%	27%	3.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-11%
2	SILVER WRAITH J: David Probert · T: Emma Lavelle	23%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+46%
3	SANDSCREENDELIVERD J: Pat Dobbs · T: Peter Crate	13%	13%	7.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-0%
4	TAN RAPIDO J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Charlie Fellowes	13%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-9%
5	RAGE OF THUNDER J: Paddy Bradley · T: Gary & Josh Moore	9%	7%	15.0	+38%
6	TWILIGHT CALLS J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer	9%	25%	4.0	-66%
7	OVER SPICED J: Oisin Murphy · T: Grace Harris	8%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+17%
8	GOOD EARTH J: Connor Planas · T: Michael Herrington	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-5%
9	LIPSINK J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Michael Appleby	6%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+81%
—	CRESSIDA WILDES NR J: Grace McEntee · T: Phil McEntee	6%	—	—	—	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org