Sandown 13:32 — Value Analysis

Saturday 13 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 9.0f Class 3 5 runners
🏁 Result: The Joker won (SP 2.75)
Model's most likely LOBLOLLY 33% model chance · market 8%
★ Best value ARBAAWY model 31% vs market 25% · +25%
Why the model rates LOBLOLLY top (33% chance)
  • ✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LOBLOLLY ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: S Woods
33%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 3rd
2
ARBAAWY
J: Ray Dawson · T: John Butler
31%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +25% 4th
3
MOHAARAJ
J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes
18%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -9% 5th
4
THE JOKER
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
18%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41% Winner
5
LAW COURT
J: Faleh Bughenaim · T: Richard Hannon
17%
29%
3.5
 -41% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org