Downpatrick 13:25 — Value Analysis

Saturday 13 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GTY 19.0f Class 0 10 runners
🏁 Result: Brosna Queen won (SP 3.75)
Model's most likely ARDEEN JOY 25% model chance · market 32%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ARDEEN JOY top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✓ Best suited to today's ground of any runner

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ARDEEN JOY ★ Top Rated
J: Kevin Sexton · T: Gordon Elliott
25%
32%
3.1
 -20% 3rd
2
MISS JOCUND
J: Mike O'Connor · T: Henry De Bromhead
20%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +103% 5th
3
VROOMVROOMBOO
J: Conor Smithers(7) · T: James Andrew Fahey
12%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +146% 8th
4
BETHPAGE THEATRE
J: Ethan O'Sullivan(7) · T: Peter Fahey
12%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees —
5
HATHAWAYS COTTAGE
J: Carl Millar(5) · T: D M Christie
9%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27% 6th
6
BROSNA QUEEN
J: Ricky Doyle · T: S G Carey
9%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -65% Winner
7
SPRING WALTZ
J: Kieren Buckley · T: Henry De Bromhead
9%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -40% 2nd
8
RUMBLE DEMOSA
J: Gavin Brouder · T: Eoin Griffin
8%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 7th
9
EVERYDAY LIFE
J: James Smith(5) · T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
7%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60% 9th
10
TORQUE DE LUNE
J: Harry Sexton(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
5%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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