Downpatrick 13:50 — Value Analysis

Sunday 14 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 22.0f Class 0 14 runners

🏁 Result: Surfin Usa won (SP 6.5)

Model's most likely SOUND JUDGEMENT 22% model chance · market 42%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates SOUND JUDGEMENT top (22% chance)

✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	SOUND JUDGEMENT ★ Top Rated J: Josh Williamson · T: Gordon Elliott	22%	42%	2.4 ▼ Edge decreasing	-47%	3rd
2	SURFIN USA J: Charlie O'Dwyer · T: W P Mullins	14%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-21%	Winner
3	OPEN APPROACH J: James Smith · T: Gordon Elliott	13%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+145%	4th
4	TEXAS RED J: Shane O'Callaghan · T: P J Rothwell	12%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+209%	8th
—	MAJESTIC HORIZON NR J: Kevin Healy(4) · T: P J Rothwell	8%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
5	TOOR IDAHO J: Danny Power(4) · T: Ms M Flynn	8%	2%	41.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+225%	9th
6	NEVERMINDESTRANGER J: Finn Brickley(4) · T: Nigel Johnston	7%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
7	LUNAR MAJESTY J: Ross Berry(4) · T: C A Murphy	6%	15%	6.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-58%	5th
8	SEEKTHISFAIRLAND J: Thomas O'Connor(4) · T: P J Rothwell	6%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	11th
9	GAINSVILLE J: Patrick M O'Brien(2) · T: Henry De Bromhead	6%	27%	3.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-78%	6th
—	I CAN FIND EM NR J: Philip Donovan · T: Gary McGill	5%	8%	13.0	-31%	Withdrawn
10	ACHERON J: Harry Sexton(4) · T: John Joseph Hanlon	5%	0%	251.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	2nd
11	URRA MASS ROCK J: Calum Hogan(2) · T: E Seymour	4%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+249%	10th
12	TRIBAL MOON J: Carl Millar(2) · T: Noel C Kelly	4%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-39%	7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org