Doncaster 14:00 — Value Analysis

Sunday 14 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTS 12.0f Class 5 6 runners

🏁 Result: Optician won (SP 5.5)

Model's most likely HOLLY MIST 30% model chance · market 23%

★ Best value HOLLY MIST model 30% vs market 23% · +30%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: TIGER is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 23% vs the market's 44% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates HOLLY MIST top (30% chance)

✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Proven specialist at today's trip
✕ Recent form trending the wrong way

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HOLLY MIST ★ Top Rated J: Jack Nicholls · T: Roger Varian	30%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	+30%	3rd
2	TIGER J: Harry Vigors(3) · T: Ian Williams	23%	44%	2.2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-48%	2nd
3	IDYLLIC J: Lauren Young · T: Wilf Storey	20%	13%	7.5	+48%	5th
4	CALEDONIAN J: Alexandra Egan(3) · T: David Simcock	14%	8%	12.0	+72%	4th
5	RED DEREK J: Ben Ffrench Davis · T: Lisa Williamson	12%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+151%	6th
6	OPTICIAN J: Conor Whiteley(3) · T: Michael Herrington	11%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-39%	Winner

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org