Chepstow 1:50: — Value Analysis

Monday 15 June 2026 · result below

Amateur GTS 10.0f Class 6 9 runners

Model's most likely PRIDE OF NEPAL 25% model chance · market 33%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates PRIDE OF NEPAL top (25% chance)

✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run
✕ Today's ground is a question mark for it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	PRIDE OF NEPAL ★ Top Rated J: Miss Sarah Bowen · T: Tony Carroll	25%	33%	3.0	-26%	Winner
2	LOUIE THE LEGEND J: Mr Fletcher Yarham · T: Dylan Cunha	19%	31%	3.2	-38%	9th
3	KNIGHTMARE J: Miss Amy Tucker · T: David Evans	16%	17%	6.0	-4%	5th
4	SHOWMEDEMONEY J: Miss Taryn Cole · T: Craig Benton	13%	5%	19.0	+150%	4th
5	ALAZWAR J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson	12%	7%	15.0	+76%	2nd
6	OLIVIA JANE J: Miss Lily Jones · T: Nick Scholfield	11%	2%	41.0	⚠ market disagrees	6th
7	TIGER BEETLE J: Mr Harry Rimell · T: Thomas Faulkner	10%	11%	9.5	-2%	8th
8	POMERIGGIO J: Miss Chelsea Edwards · T: Nikki Evans	9%	1%	67.0	⚠ market disagrees	7th
9	THE PUG J: Miss Jemima Stewart · T: Olly Murphy	9%	9%	11.0	-6%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org