Carlisle 1:40: — Value Analysis

Monday 15 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 6.0f Class 4 10 runners

Model's most likely CALL NICKI 29% model chance · market 64%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates CALL NICKI top (29% chance)

✓ Best distance profile in the race — ideal trip
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	CALL NICKI ★ Top Rated J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	29%	64%	1.6	-54%	3rd
2	REDLINE J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston	14%	23%	4.3	-39%	Winner
3	PEGGYS LAD J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine	14%	1%	151.0	⚠ market disagrees	8th
4	BLUESTONE LADY J: William Pyle · T: Phillip Makin	12%	4%	23.0	+177%	4th
5	SUNRISE AT DAWN J: Joanna Mason · T: Craig Lidster	11%	12%	8.0	-9%	6th
6	KING OF PERSIA J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby	10%	4%	26.0	+163%	7th
7	ELEVEN EIGHTY TWO J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Ben Haslam	10%	9%	11.0	+8%	2nd
8	RIGHT UP MY ALI J: Dougie Costello · T: Mark Walford	8%	3%	34.0	+172%	9th
9	AURORA VALKYRIE J: Rowan Scott · T: Katie Scott	7%	1%	67.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th
10	MR DE MAGGS J: Alex Jary · T: Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay	7%	1%	81.0	⚠ market disagrees	10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org