Ascot 3:40: — Value Analysis

Tuesday 16 June 2026 · result below

Group 1 GTF 5.0f Class 1 26 runners

Model's most likely MISSION CENTRAL 21% model chance · market 7%

⚡ Model standout MISSION CENTRAL model rates it 21% but the market has it an outsider (15.0) — a higher-risk each-way angle.

Why the model rates MISSION CENTRAL top (21% chance)

✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run
✕ Today's ground is a question mark for it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MISSION CENTRAL ★ Top Rated J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien	21%	7%	15.0	+211%	Winner
2	NIGHT RAIDER J: James Doyle · T: K R Burke	15%	20%	5.0	-27%	10th
3	OVERPASS J: Joshua Parr · T: Bjorn Baker	14%	23%	4.3	-38%	3rd
4	AMERICAN AFFAIR J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie	12%	12%	8.5	+0%	26th
5	BIG MOJO J: Tom Marquand · T: Michael Appleby	9%	8%	12.0	+10%	8th
6	FROST AT DAWN J: William Buick · T: William Knight	9%	2%	51.0	⚠ market disagrees	20th
7	RAYEVKA J: Mickael Barzalona · T: F-H Graffard	9%	12%	8.0	-30%	2nd
8	JAKAJARO J: Jamie Spencer · T: Robert Cowell	9%	3%	34.0	+193%	5th
9	RUMSTAR J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman	8%	4%	26.0	+95%	25th
10	BEHIKE J: David Egan · T: George Scott	7%	3%	34.0	+130%	18th
11	ASFOORA J: Oisin Murphy · T: Henry Dwyer	7%	8%	13.0	-15%	7th
12	AZURE ANGEL J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell	6%	1%	126.0	⚠ market disagrees	12th
13	MGHEERA J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker	6%	1%	81.0	⚠ market disagrees	14th
14	COVER UP J: James McDonald · T: Simon & Ed Crisford	5%	4%	26.0	+26%	13th
15	ROSY AFFAIR J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey	5%	5%	19.0	-9%	4th
16	GETREADYTORUMBLE J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Jack Channon	4%	1%	67.0	+194%	21st
17	ASPECT ISLAND J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: James Owen	4%	2%	41.0	+77%	16th
18	SHAGRAAN J: Hector Crouch · T: Clive Cox	4%	1%	67.0	+156%	17th
19	MISS ATTITUDE J: Ronan Whelan · T: Jack Channon	4%	1%	81.0	+192%	8th
20	FIRST INSTINCT J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas	4%	1%	67.0	+135%	22nd
21	STARLUST J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett	3%	2%	51.0	+66%	23rd
22	TIME FOR SANDALS J: Richard Kingscote · T: Harry Eustace	3%	6%	17.0	-46%	19th
23	HEAVENLY HEATHER J: Barry McHugh · T: Tracy Waggott	3%	2%	41.0	+18%	6th
24	JM JUNGLE J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn	3%	1%	81.0	+120%	11th
25	MONTEILLE J: Cristian Demuro · T: Mario Baratti	3%	1%	67.0	+74%	24th
26	AINT NOBODY J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan	2%	1%	81.0	+60%	15th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org