Thirsk 3:25: — Value Analysis

Tuesday 16 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 6.0f Class 5 11 runners

Model's most likely FRANTIC 24% model chance · market 42%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates FRANTIC top (24% chance)

✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FRANTIC ★ Top Rated J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker	24%	42%	2.4	-43%	7th
2	TAYGAR J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods	13%	22%	4.5	-43%	4th
3	TACTICAL FORMATION J: Jack Garritty · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	11%	5%	21.0	+132%	10th
4	SPACE BEAR J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael Appleby	10%	11%	9.0	-8%	2nd
5	PULL THE RUG J: Connor Beasley · T: Edward Bethell	9%	12%	8.5	-23%	9th
6	KINGS MERCHANT J: William Pyle · T: Philip Kirby	8%	4%	26.0	+107%	8th
7	VINGEGAARD J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho	7%	2%	41.0	+203%	Winner
8	SUGAR BABY J: Mark Winn · T: Peter Niven	7%	5%	21.0	+53%	5th
9	EMPEROR CARADOC J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley	6%	14%	7.0	-57%	6th
10	HARLEQUIN BAY J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	5%	1%	126.0	⚠ market disagrees	11th
11	RECORD DAY J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison	5%	2%	41.0	+90%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org