Stratford 2:05: — Value Analysis

Tuesday 16 June 2026 · result below

Novice Hurdle GD 18.5f Class 4 10 runners

Model's most likely LOUIS VERON 58% model chance · market 69%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates LOUIS VERON top (58% chance)

✓ Strongest class record of the field for this grade
✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LOUIS VERON ★ Top Rated J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton	58%	69%	1.4	-17%	Winner
2	MASKARVEL J: Jonathan Burke · T: Alastair Ralph	24%	29%	3.5	-17%	2nd
3	USYK J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies	12%	1%	67.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th
4	BLACK DAKOTA J: Robbie David · T: Daisy Hitchins	11%	3%	29.0	+219%	6th
5	TAKE THE BOAT J: Harry Bannister · T: Georgina Nicholls	11%	15%	6.5	-30%	3rd
6	COLIBRI BLEU J: Jack Andrews · T: T Ellis	9%	1%	101.0	⚠ market disagrees	7th
7	PENZANCE J: Paddy Hanlon · T: John Joseph Hanlon	8%	5%	21.0	+59%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org