Ripon 8:00: — Value Analysis

Wednesday 17 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 10.0f Class 5 8 runners

Model's most likely KRISSY 31% model chance · market 36%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates KRISSY top (31% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run
✕ Recent form trending the wrong way

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	KRISSY ★ Top Rated J: Rhys Elliott · T: Jim Goldie	31%	36%	2.8	-15%	6th
2	MELODY DE VEGA J: Jack Doughty · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	18%	20%	5.0	-9%	2nd
3	BAY DREAM BELIEVER J: Jason Hart · T: Mark Walford	15%	31%	3.2	-50%	7th
4	ELOQUENCIA J: Joanna Mason · T: James Owen	12%	15%	6.5	-20%	Winner
5	GLASGOW KISS J: Billy Garritty · T: Hugo Palmer	12%	6%	17.0	+96%	8th
6	THE NEW BAY PEARL J: Tom Eaves · T: Simon Whitaker	10%	5%	21.0	+108%	4th
7	ANGELAS BAAR J: Mikey Sheehy · T: Adrian Paul Keatley	9%	2%	51.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th
8	ROSEMARY MAY J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby	8%	1%	67.0	⚠ market disagrees	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org