Hamilton 4:02: — Value Analysis

Wednesday 17 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 6.0f Class 5 8 runners
Model's most likely STIRRUP CUP 28% model chance · market 29%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates STIRRUP CUP top (28% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✕ Awkwardly drawn for this track and trip

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
STIRRUP CUP ★ Top Rated
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
28%
29%
3.5
 -3% 5th
2
IRIS DANCER
J: Connor Beasley · T: Tristan Davidson
19%
22%
4.5
 -16% 2nd
3
EMPERORS SON
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
14%
12%
8.5
 +21% Winner
4
ANNIE EDSON TAYLOR
J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin
13%
17%
6.0
 -20% 6th
5
MALDEVIOUS
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison
11%
11%
9.5
 +9% 3rd
6
POP STAR
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine
10%
12%
8.0
 -19% 4th
7
CATALYSE
J: Jake Dickson · T: Jim Goldie
8%
7%
15.0
 +26% 7th
8
DOON THE GLEN
J: Amie Waugh · T: Jim Goldie
7%
8%
12.0
 -12% 8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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