Ripon 2:15: — Value Analysis

Thursday 18 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 5 11 runners

Model's most likely SUPER ALPHA 30% model chance · market 23%

★ Best value SUPER ALPHA model 30% vs market 23% · +30%

Why the model rates SUPER ALPHA top (30% chance)

✓ Best distance profile in the race — ideal trip

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	SUPER ALPHA ★ Top Rated J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston	30%	23%	4.3	+30%	8th
2	JOHNS POWER J: Joanna Mason · T: Roger Fell	15%	5%	19.0	+187%	10th
3	INNS AND OUT J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	15%	20%	5.0	-27%	3rd
4	PERSAZZ J: Luke Morris · T: William Knight	14%	18%	5.5	-22%	Winner
5	WONG FEI HONG J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara	12%	8%	13.0	+55%	11th
6	PRINTING MONEY J: Kevin Stott · T: Dylan Cunha	10%	20%	5.0	-52%	6th
7	BOUTBLUMMINTIME J: Mikey Sheehy · T: Adrian Paul Keatley	9%	7%	15.0	+38%	4th
8	STATE OF GOLD J: William Pyle · T: Craig Lidster	8%	14%	7.0	-42%	2nd
9	BIGALO J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Roger Fell	7%	2%	41.0	+205%	9th
10	CARRY ON CHAOS J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby	6%	1%	67.0	+291%	7th
11	PJS CORNER J: Jason Hart · T: Dylan Cunha	5%	2%	41.0	+117%	5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org