Ripon 1:40: — Value Analysis

Thursday 18 June 2026 · result below

Amateur GD 12.0f Class 6 12 runners

Model's most likely PRIDE OF NEPAL 30% model chance · market 31%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates PRIDE OF NEPAL top (30% chance)

✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✕ Quick turnaround since its last outing

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	PRIDE OF NEPAL ★ Top Rated J: Miss Sarah Bowen · T: Tony Carroll	30%	31%	3.2	-3%	Winner
2	MAX OF STARS J: Miss Chelsea Brooks · T: Ollie Pears	15%	18%	5.5	-15%	2nd
3	ONE MILLION DREAMS J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson	14%	4%	26.0	+270%	9th
4	BOUBOULE J: Miss Rebecca Hitchen · T: Gillian Boanas	13%	2%	41.0	⚠ market disagrees	11th
5	BRUCE BANNER J: Miss Amy Milburn · T: Rebecca Menzies	12%	8%	12.0	+47%	5th
6	KITSUNE POWER J: Miss Rebecca Burley · T: Tim Easterby	10%	18%	5.5	-43%	6th
7	YAKHABAR J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Liam Bailey	10%	5%	19.0	+83%	4th
8	JACK LANGLEY J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell · T: Charlie Clover	9%	25%	4.0	-64%	3rd
9	ARRANMORE J: Miss Becky Smith · T: Micky Hammond	8%	7%	15.0	+22%	7th
10	SPEECHMAN J: Miss Natasha Cookson · T: Philip Kirby	7%	2%	41.0	+184%	8th
11	YURINOV J: Miss Tilly Evans · T: Philip Kirby	6%	1%	81.0	⚠ market disagrees	10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org