Market Rasen 3:55: — Value Analysis

Friday 19 June 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GD 21.5f Class 3 6 runners
Model's most likely BHALOO 29% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value GATEAU DE MIEL model 18% vs market 11% · +71%
Why the model rates BHALOO top (29% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✕ Stepping up in class on its last winning level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BHALOO ★ Top Rated
J: James Bowen · T: Nicky Henderson
29%
29%
3.5
 +3% 5th
2
OSTEND
J: Shane Fenelon · T: Mickey Bowen
27%
31%
3.2
 -12% 2nd
3
MAHONS GLORY
J: Lee Edwards · T: Dylan Cunha
19%
23%
4.3
 -18% Winner
4
GATEAU DE MIEL
J: Tom Broughton · T: Fergal O'Brien
18%
11%
9.5
 +71% 3rd
5
GENOIS
J: Harry Cobden · T: Jonjo & A J O'Neill
16%
6%
17.0
 +164% 4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org