Redcar 2:50: — Value Analysis

Friday 19 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 7.0f Class 6 10 runners

Model's most likely HEY HAVANA 28% model chance · market 44%

★ Best value ONLY DREAM BIG model 21% vs market 20% · +6%

Why the model rates HEY HAVANA top (28% chance)

✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Best distance profile in the race — ideal trip
✕ Recent form trending the wrong way
✕ Quick turnaround since its last outing

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HEY HAVANA ★ Top Rated J: Sam James · T: Geoffrey Harker	28%	44%	2.2	-37%	2nd
2	ONLY DREAM BIG J: Jason Hart · T: Tim Easterby	21%	20%	5.0	+6%	Winner
3	TWILIGHT DAWN J: Joanna Mason · T: Simon Whitaker	14%	12%	8.0	+13%	3rd
4	CASE STUDY J: Pat Cosgrave · T: George Boughey	12%	18%	5.5	-32%	10th
5	HARSWELL RIVER J: Cian Horgan · T: Roger Fell	11%	11%	9.0	-5%	5th
6	TEN SIXTY SIX J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara	10%	6%	17.0	+68%	9th
7	SECRET TESTIMONY J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll	8%	3%	34.0	+187%	4th
8	WHAT FOOLS BELIEVE J: Sean D Bowen · T: Ivan Furtado	7%	3%	34.0	+150%	8th
9	ITSZABOY J: Faye McManoman · T: Nigel Tinkler	7%	1%	67.0	⚠ market disagrees	6th
10	ENDURING STORY J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr	6%	1%	101.0	⚠ market disagrees	7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org