Ayr 2:18: — Value Analysis

Saturday 20 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap SFT 5.0f Class 6 8 runners
Model's most likely SKI ANGEL 26% model chance · market 45%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates SKI ANGEL top (26% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✕ Quick turnaround since its last outing

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SKI ANGEL ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Mitchell · T: R Mike Smith
26%
45%
2.2
 -43% 3rd
2
KING OF THE JUNGLE
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
18%
20%
5.0
 -8% Winner
3
WEE MARY
J: Amie Waugh · T: Jim Goldie
16%
25%
4.0
 -37% 6th
4
KEEP THE GOLD
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Michael Dods
12%
6%
17.0
 +99% 4th
5
AUNTIE JO
J: Sam James · T: Katie Scott
11%
5%
21.0
 +124% 5th
6
REGAL DREAM
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan
10%
2%
41.0
 +293% 8th
7
ROYAL DUKE
J: Rhys Elliott · T: R Mike Smith
9%
10%
10.0
 -11% 7th
8
GREAT PROFIT
J: Barry McHugh · T: Gary Harrison
8%
1%
67.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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