Ayr 3:28: — Value Analysis

Saturday 20 June 2026 · result below

Classified Stakes SFT 7.0f Class 6 8 runners

Model's most likely LOPE Y LINDA 23% model chance · market 48%

★ Best value MONHAMMER model 19% vs market 11% · +74%

Why the model rates LOPE Y LINDA top (23% chance)

✓ No single factor stands out — a close call on the model's figures
✕ Recent form trending the wrong way
✕ Quick turnaround since its last outing

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LOPE Y LINDA ★ Top Rated J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	23%	48%	2.1	-51%	Winner
2	MONHAMMER J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Linda Perratt	19%	11%	9.0	+74%	3rd
3	RIDGEMASTER J: Amie Waugh · T: Simon Waugh	16%	18%	5.5	-11%	2nd
4	NO NAY NEVERMIND J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine	15%	12%	8.5	+30%	4th
5	PEBBLE DASH J: Barry McHugh · T: Gary Harrison	15%	7%	15.0	+122%	6th
6	QUEENIES PAL J: Mark Winn · T: Noel Wilson	13%	3%	34.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th
7	RING OF GOLD J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby	12%	6%	17.0	+100%	7th
8	EVELYNS GARDEN J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott	10%	3%	29.0	+187%	8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org