Ayr 4:48: — Value Analysis

Saturday 20 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap SFT 7.0f Class 5 8 runners

Model's most likely MILFORD GRANGE 29% model chance · market 36%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates MILFORD GRANGE top (29% chance)

✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MILFORD GRANGE ★ Top Rated J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby	29%	36%	2.8	-19%	2nd
2	ELLIES DE VEGA J: Barry McHugh · T: Noel Wilson	19%	23%	4.3	-16%	3rd
3	HORACE WALLACE J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	16%	15%	6.5	+1%	4th
4	STORM ESME J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	12%	11%	9.5	+16%	5th
5	SANNY DOO J: Lauren Young · T: Jim Goldie	11%	5%	21.0	+124%	8th
6	REAL JACK J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Michael Dods	10%	10%	10.0	+2%	7th
7	CIRCLE OF TRUST J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan	10%	14%	7.0	-33%	Winner
8	BLUE MANTLE J: Andrew Mullen · T: Charlie Johnston	8%	3%	29.0	+119%	6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org