Musselburgh 14:15 — Value Analysis

Monday 22 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 8.0f Class 6 7 runners
🏁 Result: Only Dream Big won (SP 3.5)
Model's most likely MERESIDE PRINCESS 25% model chance · market 22%
★ Best value MERESIDE PRINCESS model 25% vs market 22% · +11%
Why the model rates MERESIDE PRINCESS top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MERESIDE PRINCESS ★ Top Rated
J: Oliver Stammers · T: David & Nicola Barron
25%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +11% 2nd
2
KAMEKO FEVER
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
19%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +146% 7th
3
INFERNO
J: Connor Beasley · T: Edward Bethell
16%
33%
3.0
 -53% 3rd
4
THANKFULLY SIMMY
J: Billy Garritty · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
14%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +67% 5th
5
ONLY DREAM BIG
J: Jason Hart · T: Tim Easterby
13%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -61% Winner
6
SINGARDA
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
11%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +48% 4th
7
SANNY DOO
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
9%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +267% 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org