Catterick 14:30 — Value Analysis

Monday 22 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 5.0f Class 4 8 runners

🏁 Result: Minzelle won (SP 1.8)

Model's most likely MISS TUITE 22% model chance · market 8%

★ Best value CALEF model 19% vs market 10% · +89%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MINZELLE is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 21% vs the market's 60% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates MISS TUITE top (22% chance)

✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MISS TUITE ★ Top Rated J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll	22%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+189%	5th
2	MINZELLE J: Clifford Lee · T: K R Burke	21%	60%	1.7	-66%	Winner
3	CALEF J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara	19%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+89%	3rd
4	WARBY J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	14%	4%	23.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+233%	2nd
5	ROOTS IN TOUCHE J: Mikey Sheehy · T: Adrian Paul Keatley	14%	33%	3.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-58%	4th
6	MA FILLE DE REVE J: Barry McHugh · T: Declan Carroll	14%	1%	81.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	⚠ market disagrees	6th
7	SABLE NOIR J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan	12%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	8th
8	ANGEL STEPS J: Cam Hardie · T: Paul Midgley	10%	1%	67.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	⚠ market disagrees	7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org