Musselburgh 14:45 — Value Analysis

Monday 22 June 2026 · result below

Selling Stakes GD 7.0f Class 3 6 runners

🏁 Result: Amantha won (SP 12.0)

Model's most likely LADY DUBLIN 24% model chance · market 52%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates LADY DUBLIN top (24% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
—	BLUESTONE LADY NR J: William Pyle · T: Phillip Makin	28%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
1	LADY DUBLIN ★ Top Rated J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears	24%	52%	1.9 ▼ Edge decreasing	-55%	3rd
2	LIVEADREAM J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin	22%	29%	3.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-24%	2nd
3	AMANTHA J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Brian Ellison	21%	5%	20.0	⚠ market disagrees	Winner
4	NORTHERN VIOLA J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn	17%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-6%	5th
5	TURBO SHANDY J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ivan Furtado	16%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+138%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org