Beverley 14:15 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 23 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 7.5f Class 3 5 runners

🏁 Result: Lady Caroline Lamb won (SP 1.83)

Model's most likely FERN CLYDE 30% model chance · market 27%

★ Best value FERN CLYDE model 30% vs market 27% · +11%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: LADY CAROLINE LAMB is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 18% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates FERN CLYDE top (30% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FERN CLYDE ★ Top Rated J: D Allan · T: T D Easterby	30%	27%	3.8	+11%	3rd
2	LITTLE LADY KAREN J: S H James · T: K R Burke	23%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	-2%	2nd
3	COUSIN RACHEL J: T Eaves · T: K A Ryan	19%	5%	19.0	+270%	4th
4	LADY CAROLINE LAMB J: Connor Beasley · T: C Johnston	18%	55%	1.8	-66%	Winner
—	ROGUE PASSION NR J: D Tudhope · T: E Bethell	16%	—	—	—	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org