Ffos Las 14:30 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 23 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTS 6.0f Class 5 7 runners

🏁 Result: Punchbowl Flyer won (SP 13.0)

Model's most likely ON EDGE 22% model chance · market 22%

★ Best value PROOF model 20% vs market 17% · +19%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: LOHOOBB is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 17% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates ON EDGE top (22% chance)

✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	ON EDGE ★ Top Rated J: Billy Loughnane · T: C Mason	22%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-1%	3rd
2	PROOF J: Rossa Ryan · T: C Hills	20%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+19%	6th
3	LOHOOBB J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Owen Burrows	17%	42%	2.4	-60%	2nd
4	GREY HORIZON J: Christian Howarth · T: S Dixon	15%	9%	11.0	+60%	7th
5	SAFARI DREAM J: Lewis Edmunds · T: B R Millman	12%	12%	8.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-3%	5th
6	HIERARCHY J: William Carver · T: J A Osborne	11%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+127%	4th
7	PUNCHBOWL FLYER J: Alexandra Egan · T: J G M O'Shea	9%	8%	12.0	+9%	Winner

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org