Carlisle 14:00 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 24 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 5.0f Class 4 5 runners
🏁 Result: In The Black won (SP 7.5)
Model's most likely QUEEN OF CHRISTMAS 29% model chance · market 55%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates QUEEN OF CHRISTMAS top (29% chance)
  • ✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
QUEEN OF CHRISTMAS ★ Top Rated
J: C Lee · T: K R Burke
29%
55%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -47% 4th
2
BY JOVE GRACE
J: O J Orr · T: R A Fahey
25%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 2nd
—
SOD HALL LANE NR
J: Zak Wheatley · T: D Carroll
23%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
3
IN THE BLACK
J: P J McDonald · T: G R Oldroyd
18%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +1% Winner
4
LOUIS THE FIFTH
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: M L W Bell
15%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -54% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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