Carlisle 14:30 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 24 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 4 6 runners

🏁 Result: Ruby Moon won (SP 5.0)

Model's most likely RUBY MOON 24% model chance · market 18%

★ Best value RUBY MOON model 24% vs market 18% · +33%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SILESIA is the market favourite (1.6) but the model rates it only 23% vs the market's 64% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates RUBY MOON top (24% chance)

✓ No single factor stands out — a close call on the model's figures

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	RUBY MOON ★ Top Rated J: O J Orr · T: R A Fahey	24%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+33%	Winner
2	SILESIA J: K Stott · T: K A Ryan	23%	64%	1.6 ▼ Edge decreasing	-63%	2nd
—	ONE SHOT KODI NR J: T Eaves · T: K A Ryan	20%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
3	ENHANCING J: Rowan Scott · T: H Palmer	18%	15%	6.5	+20%	4th
4	LOVE TANYA J: Connor Beasley · T: E Bethell	16%	13%	7.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+23%	3rd
5	INDEPENDENT ROZE J: Faye McManoman · T: L Williamson	13%	1%	81.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org