Carlisle 15:00 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 24 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 4 11 runners

🏁 Result: Mia Fantasia won (SP 4.33)

Model's most likely WELLS FARGO STAGE 27% model chance · market 2%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SOCIAL SPIRIT is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates WELLS FARGO STAGE top (27% chance)

✓ No single factor stands out — a close call on the model's figures

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	WELLS FARGO STAGE ★ Top Rated J: D Allan · T: T D Easterby	27%	2%	51.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th
2	KING OF PERSIA J: Sean Kirrane · T: T D Easterby	19%	3%	35.0	⚠ market disagrees	7th
3	SOCIAL SPIRIT J: Billy Garritty · T: M & D Easterby	14%	55%	1.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-74%	6th
4	RICKY PUNTING J: Jason Hart · T: Tom Dascombe	13%	12%	8.0	+1%	3rd
5	BE MORE RUTHLESS J: D Fentiman · T: Adrian Nicholls	11%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	10th
6	MIA FANTASIA J: O J Orr · T: H Palmer	10%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-58%	Winner
7	TELEGRAPHIC J: Connor Beasley · T: C Johnston	9%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+19%	4th
8	PLATINUM FORCE J: Callum Rodriguez · T: M L W Bell	9%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-4%	8th
9	MRS MOLE J: C Lee · T: Steph Hollinshead	8%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+91%	9th
10	PARRY GREEN J: Faye McManoman · T: L Williamson	7%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	11th
11	THE FIRST DROP J: Mikey Sheehy · T: A Keatley	6%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+76%	2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org