Nottingham 10:30 — Value Analysis

Thursday 25 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 10.0f Class 3 3 runners
🏁 Result: Food For Thought won (SP 2.75)
Model's most likely VELVET VEGA 56% model chance · market 62%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates VELVET VEGA top (56% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run
  • ✕ Stepping up in class on its last winning level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
VELVET VEGA ★ Top Rated
J: Benoit D L Sayette · T: J & T Gosden
56%
62%
1.6
▲ Edge increasing
 -9% 3rd
2
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
J: H Crouch · T: R M Beckett
23%
39%
2.6
▲ Edge increasing
 -40% Winner
3
HATTA ROMANCE
J: Tyler Heard · T: M D I Usher
18%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +251% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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