Nottingham 11:00 — Value Analysis

Thursday 25 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 14.0f Class 6 4 runners

🏁 Result: Nymphaea won (SP 3.25)

Model's most likely NYMPHAEA 27% model chance · market 29%

★ Best value MUHIB model 23% vs market 12% · +82%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: TWO PLUS TWO is the market favourite (2.1) but the model rates it only 20% vs the market's 48% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates NYMPHAEA top (27% chance)

✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	NYMPHAEA ★ Top Rated J: Marco Ghiani · T: J Candlish	27%	29%	3.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-4%	Winner
2	MUHIB J: Warren Fentiman · T: Olly Williams	23%	12%	8.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+82%	3rd
3	TWO PLUS TWO J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Ed De Giles	20%	48%	2.1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-59%	2nd
4	STAR OF JUPITER J: Harry Davies · T: D M Loughnane	17%	20%	5.0	-14%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org