Doncaster 10:15 — Value Analysis

Friday 26 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 12.0f Class 3 5 runners

🏁 Result: Alpinara won (SP 1.8)

Model's most likely GREEN AREA 40% model chance · market 12%

★ Best value GREEN AREA model 40% vs market 12% · +218%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ALPINARA is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 16% vs the market's 52% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates GREEN AREA top (40% chance)

✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	GREEN AREA ★ Top Rated J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston	40%	12%	8.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+218%	3rd
2	BRUNHILDE J: James Doyle · T: George Boughey	24%	38%	2.6 ▲ Edge increasing	-37%	2nd
3	WOOTTONS GAL J: Shane Gray · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	22%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	4th
4	ALPINARA J: David Egan · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt	16%	52%	1.9 ▼ Edge decreasing	-70%	Winner
5	ORESTINA J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Paul Robson	14%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org