Yarmouth 10:30 — Value Analysis

Friday 26 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 14.0f Class 5 4 runners

🏁 Result: Kelly Burn won (SP 3.25)

Model's most likely KELLY BURN 30% model chance · market 31%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MOUNTBATTEN is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 20% vs the market's 52% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates KELLY BURN top (30% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run
✕ Recent form trending the wrong way

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	KELLY BURN ★ Top Rated J: Cieren Fallon · T: James Fanshawe	30%	31%	3.2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-2%	Winner
2	LEONATO J: Jack Callan(3) · T: George Boughey	21%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+156%	2nd
3	MOUNTBATTEN J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt	20%	52%	1.9 ▲ Edge increasing	-61%	4th
4	QUEEN OF ASTOLAT J: Saffie Osborne · T: Charlie Fellowes	17%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-5%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org