Doncaster 10:45 — Value Analysis

Friday 26 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 5 8 runners
🏁 Result: Dark Angel Light won (SP 7.5)
Model's most likely REGIONAL ROCK 39% model chance · market 78%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates REGIONAL ROCK top (39% chance)
  • ✓ Strongest class record of the field for this grade
  • ✕ Stepping up in class on its last winning level
  • ✕ Long layoff — fitness still to prove

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
REGIONAL ROCK ★ Top Rated
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ralph Beckett
39%
78%
1.3
 -50% 2nd
2
ELMFIELD
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
20%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +200% 7th
3
DARK ANGEL LIGHT
J: George Bass · T: Jack Channon
15%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +4% Winner
4
RONSTADT
J: David Egan · T: Ollie Sangster
13%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +61% 6th
5
GOLDEN HARVEST
J: Connor Beasley · T: Steph Hollinshead
12%
1%
113.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 5th
6
AURADUE
J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Roy Bowring
10%
3%
37.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +285% 4th
7
CULLINAN WOLF
J: Dale Swift · T: Adrian Paul Keatley
10%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +106% 8th
8
SAND SEA
J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron
9%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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