York 13:20 — Value Analysis

Saturday 27 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 2 12 runners

🏁 Result: Sirocco Sands won (SP 5.5)

Model's most likely FURTURRA 22% model chance · market 23%

★ Best value MEZZO FORTE model 18% vs market 17% · +11%

Why the model rates FURTURRA top (22% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FURTURRA ★ Top Rated J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby	22%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-4%	2nd
2	CASINO STAR J: Clifford Lee · T: K R Burke	19%	35%	2.9	-44%	6th
3	MEZZO FORTE J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas	18%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+11%	5th
4	BIGALO J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Roger Fell	17%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	7th
5	CAGNEY J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan	15%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	9th
6	SUES LAST CHANCE J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	15%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+75%	8th
7	AODHAN J: David Nolan · T: Rebecca Menzies	13%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	10th
8	RBFLYING J: Ben Robinson · T: Tim Easterby	12%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	3rd
9	SIROCCO SANDS J: Robbie Colgan · T: David Marnane	12%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-19%	Winner
10	WASHINGTON ROYALE J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Michael Appleby	11%	17%	6.0	-36%	4th
11	YORKSHIRE DREAM J: Cam Hardie · T: Ben Haslam	10%	2%	41.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	⚠ market disagrees	11th
—	SPIRIT OF MARY NR J: James Sullivan · T: Ben Haslam	6%	—	—	—	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org