Newcastle 13:40 — Value Analysis

Saturday 27 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap STSL 7.0f Class 2 14 runners

🏁 Result: Room Service won (SP 23.0)

Model's most likely TREMOLO 13% model chance · market 11%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates TREMOLO top (13% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✕ Recent form trending the wrong way
✕ Long layoff — fitness still to prove

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TREMOLO ★ Top Rated J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton	13%	11%	9.5	+27%	6th
2	CAVIAR COWBOY J: Luke Morris · T: James Fanshawe	12%	17%	6.0	-27%	5th
3	BOBBY BENNU J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian	11%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-58%	2nd
4	RAJEKO J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Michael Bell	10%	3%	34.0	+245%	10th
5	ROOM SERVICE J: Saffie Osborne · T: Jamie Osborne	10%	5%	20.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+92%	Winner
6	SERGEANT WILKO J: Sam James · T: Kevin Ryan	9%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+15%	8th
7	SUPIDO J: William Buick · T: Ian Williams	9%	12%	8.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-32%	7th
8	YORKSHIRE J: Connor Beasley · T: Edward Bethell	8%	11%	9.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-26%	9th
9	BRIGHTON BOY J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	7%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+70%	12th
10	NIKOVO J: Darragh Keenan · T: Michael Herrington	6%	9%	11.0	-33%	3rd
11	KORKER J: Jack Nicholls(5) · T: K R Burke	6%	4%	26.0	+47%	4th
12	METAL MERCHANT J: Cieren Fallon · T: Brian Toomey	5%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+110%	14th
13	SIR ALBERT J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding	5%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-28%	13th
14	WITCH HUNTER J: John Fahy · T: Richard Hannon	4%	8%	12.0	-53%	11th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org