Curragh 13:10 — Value Analysis

Sunday 28 June 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 0 13 runners
🏁 Result: Alpha won (SP 1.73)
Model's most likely ALPHA 24% model chance · market 56%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ALPHA top (24% chance)
  • ✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ALPHA ★ Top Rated
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
24%
56%
1.8
 -56% Winner
2
LIVENKA
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
19%
29%
3.5
 -32% 3rd
3
ENDLESS NIGHT
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J A Stack
18%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 8th
4
IBELIEVEICANFLY
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
17%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +2% 2nd
5
EXCEPTIONALLY
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
15%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +160% 12th
6
SAMNINA
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
15%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 4th
7
EXCHANGE STUDENT
J: Andrew Slattery · T: J A Stack
13%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 11th
8
ALREEM
J: Chris Hayes · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
12%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
9
LITTLEPACER
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
11%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 13th
10
ISLE OF CAPRI
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
10%
3%
34.0
 +232% 6th
11
OLD JOANIE
J: Luke McAteer · T: James M Barrett
9%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 7th
12
SOCIAL CIRCLE
J: Paddy Harnett(5) · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
8%
2%
59.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 10th
13
PRETTY THOUGHTS
J: Rory Cleary · T: C W J Farrell
8%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org