Curragh 13:40 — Value Analysis

Sunday 28 June 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 5.0f Class 0 17 runners

🏁 Result: Genesis won (SP 26.0)

Model's most likely LIKEDBYMIKE 14% model chance · market 14%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates LIKEDBYMIKE top (14% chance)

✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LIKEDBYMIKE ★ Top Rated J: Colin Keane · T: M J Byrne	14%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-3%	9th
2	RED EVOLUTION J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: M D O'Callaghan	13%	11%	9.0	+13%	12th
3	STAG NIGHT J: W J Lee · T: W McCreery	12%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+78%	14th
4	TOCA MADERA J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara	12%	25%	4.0	-54%	6th
5	DARK ACE J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness	10%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-46%	3rd
6	BUDDY BATT J: Rory Cleary · T: Tracey Collins	9%	3%	34.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+197%	16th
7	EROSANDPSYCHE J: Gary Carroll · T: Daniel James Murphy	8%	5%	21.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+71%	8th
—	GAZELLE DOR NR J: Wayne Lordan · T: M C Grassick	8%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
8	BACK DOWN UNDER J: Leigh Roche · T: Padraig Roche	7%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-41%	5th
9	CUBAN GREY J: Luke McAteer · T: Patrick J McKenna	6%	3%	34.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+113%	4th
10	ECLAIRAGE J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Daniel James Murphy	6%	3%	29.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+74%	15th
11	GENESIS J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany	5%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+35%	Winner
12	MOLTOPHINO J: Chris Hayes · T: John Andrew Kinsella	5%	10%	10.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-50%	7th
13	KERDOS J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Stephen Thorne	5%	8%	12.0	-41%	11th
14	SARAHMAE J: J M Sheridan · T: Denis Gerard Hogan	4%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-33%	2nd
15	SHADOW OF THE MOON J: Jamie Powell · T: John James Feane	4%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+13%	13th
16	HARRYS HILL J: Shay Wallace(7) · T: Martin Hassett	3%	2%	41.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+29%	10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org