Uttoxeter 13:47 — Value Analysis

Sunday 28 June 2026 · result below

Novice Hcap Chase GD 20.0f Class 3 3 runners

🏁 Result: Tamarind Bay won (SP 2.0)

Model's most likely TAMARIND BAY 49% model chance · market 45%

★ Best value SONY BILL model 22% vs market 14% · +56%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PONY SOPRANO is the market favourite (2.1) but the model rates it only 32% vs the market's 48% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates TAMARIND BAY top (49% chance)

✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TAMARIND BAY ★ Top Rated J: James Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen	49%	45%	2.2	+8%	Winner
2	PONY SOPRANO J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton	32%	48%	2.1	-33%	2nd
3	SONY BILL J: Harry Cobden · T: Faye Bramley	22%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+56%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org