Pontefract 14:30 — Value Analysis

Monday 29 June 2026 · result below

Amateur GD 10.0f Class 5 8 runners
🏁 Result: Shimmering Sands won (SP 3.0)
Model's most likely SHIMMERING SANDS 28% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates SHIMMERING SANDS top (28% chance)
  • ✓ Has won at a higher class than today's grade
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SHIMMERING SANDS ★ Top Rated
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: Michael & David Easterby
28%
33%
3.0
 -15% Winner
2
WRIST ART
J: Miss Evie Lee(7) · T: James Owen
20%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 4th
3
PRINCESS NIYLA
J: Mr David Dunsdon · T: Alan Brown
13%
11%
9.5
 +22% 6th
4
STAR START
J: Miss Charli Parker(5) · T: Ruth Carr
12%
6%
17.0
 +100% 5th
5
TEES GEORGE
J: Mr Jack Lander(5) · T: Adrian Nicholls
11%
11%
9.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +4% 3rd
6
SANDRET
J: Miss Rebecca Hitchen(5) · T: Sam England
10%
6%
16.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +58% 8th
7
YERMANTHERE
J: Mr Thomas Easterby(3) · T: Tim Easterby
7%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52% 2nd
8
EPHRON
J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Gemma Tutty
6%
30%
3.4
▲ Edge increasing
 -79% 7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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