Ffos Las 14:22 — Value Analysis

Monday 29 June 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 4 7 runners

🏁 Result: Soldier Of The Sea won (SP 2.5)

Model's most likely HIGH CALIBRE 39% model chance · market 6%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates HIGH CALIBRE top (39% chance)

✓ Fresh — an ideal gap since its last run

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HIGH CALIBRE ★ Top Rated J: Sean D Bowen · T: Richard Hannon	39%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	6th
2	PERCY SHAW J: Jason Watson · T: Charles Hills	20%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	4th
3	SOLDIER OF THE SEA J: Taylor Fisher · T: William Knight	19%	31%	3.2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-40%	Winner
4	THIS MOMENT J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey	17%	35%	2.9 ▲ Edge increasing	-52%	2nd
5	MIDGHAM MAN J: Darragh Keenan · T: Rod Millman	10%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+248%	5th
6	SEA PALACE J: David Egan · T: Ollie Sangster	8%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-46%	3rd
7	ROGUE IMPERIAL J: Luke Morris · T: Archie Watson	7%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-69%	7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org