Stratford 14:10 — Value Analysis

Monday 29 June 2026 · result below

Other Hurdle GTF 16.5f Class 4 6 runners

🏁 Result: Wicksey won (SP 6.5)

Model's most likely HIGH AURA 33% model chance · market 20%

★ Best value HIGH AURA model 33% vs market 20% · +65%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SUDBURY HILL is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 30% vs the market's 56% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates HIGH AURA top (33% chance)

✓ No single factor stands out — a close call on the model's figures

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HIGH AURA ★ Top Rated J: Tristan Durrell · T: Dan Skelton	33%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+65%	3rd
2	SUDBURY HILL J: Josh Williamson(5) · T: Harry Derham	30%	56%	1.8	-46%	4th
3	LUCKY SEVENS J: Jonathan Burke · T: James Owen	30%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+65%	2nd
4	WICKSEY J: Richie McLernon · T: Ben Haslam	15%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-11%	Winner
5	SERRAGASSO J: Ben Poste · T: Clare Hobson	8%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
—	TINY RIOT NR J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton	7%	—	—	—	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org