Thirsk 13:08 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 1 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 5.0 12 runners

🏁 Result: Kodiak Breeze won (SP 2.5)

Model's most likely POSSESSIVE 28% model chance · market 52%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Kodiak Breeze (3/2) sat close to the pace before asserting, winning by half a length. Location Location (11/1) chased him home. Possessive, the 5/6 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick POSSESSIVE (28%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates POSSESSIVE top (28% chance)

✓ Well in at the weights on the ratings
✓ Gets in light near the bottom of the weights
✓ Trainer wins 17% of runners

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	POSSESSIVE ★ Top Rated J: Jack Nicholls(5) · T: K R Burke	28%	52%	1.9 ▼ Edge decreasing	-46%	3rd
2	KODIAK BREEZE J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan	22%	44%	2.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-50%	Winner
3	LOCATION LOCATION J: Kaiya Fraser · T: James Fanshawe	9%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+8%	2nd
4	DONTLOOKANYFURTHER J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn	6%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+10%	6th
5	TERRYFYING J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	6%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+165%	8th
6	MARKET EQUITIES J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	6%	2%	61.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+242%	11th
7	MR RESDEV J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby	6%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+88%	4th
8	COURT LEGEND J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby	5%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+35%	5th
9	DESERT OUTLAW J: Mark Winn · T: Paul Midgley	4%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+240%	9th
10	WHISPER ANGEL J: Rowan Scott · T: Nigel Tinkler	3%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+177%	7th
—	NEVERBEATDESWALKER NR J: David Nolan · T: Mark Walford	2%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
11	LOVEULONGTIME J: Sam James · T: Geoffrey Harker	1%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+102%	10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org