Worcester 13:20 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 1 July 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GD 23.0f Class 4.0 11 runners
🏁 Result: Axel Bleue won (SP 5.0)
Model's most likely QUICK SHARPENER 21% model chance · market 8%
⚡ Model standout QUICK SHARPENER model rates it 21% but the market has it an outsider (13.0) — a higher-risk each-way angle.
How the race unfolded

Axel Bleue (4/1) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by a length. Gwash (17/2) filled second. Our model's top pick QUICK SHARPENER (21%) finished 10th.

Why the model rates QUICK SHARPENER top (21% chance)
  • ✓ Won or went close last time out
  • ✓ Trainer wins 21% of runners
  • ✓ Jockey wins 18% of his rides
  • ✕ The mix of trainer strike rate and recent form level counts against it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
QUICK SHARPENER ★ Top Rated
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden
21%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +170% 10th
2
YES DAY
J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr · T: Jonjo & A J O'Neill
15%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34% 3rd
3
DUEL AU SOLEIL
J: Callum Pritchard · T: Ben Pauling
11%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -26% 4th
4
PIKE ROAD
J: Freddie Keighley(5) · T: Martin Keighley
11%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54% 7th
5
GWASH
J: Tom Broughton(3) · T: Fergal O'Brien
10%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -12% 2nd
6
AXEL BLEUE
J: James Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen
9%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59% Winner
7
BETTYS TIARA
J: Ben Jones · T: Ben Pauling
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7% 9th
8
ATREIDES
J: Bradley Harris(3) · T: Neil Mulholland
5%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46% 5th
9
DOYOUKNOWWHATIMEAN
J: Kevin Brogan · T: Gary Hanmer
4%
3%
29.0
 +25% 6th
10
I AM THE MOON
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
3%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42% 8th
11
GWENNIE MAY JEM
J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +5% —

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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