Thirsk 13:38 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 1 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 5.0 11 runners
🏁 Result: Arapaho Gold won (SP 1.22)
Model's most likely ARAPAHO GOLD 26% model chance · market 82%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Arapaho Gold (1/5) sat close to the pace before asserting, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Mick's The Boy (14/1) filled second. Our model made him its top pick at 26%.

Why the model rates ARAPAHO GOLD top (26% chance)
  • ✓ Won or went close last time out
  • ✓ Gets in light near the bottom of the weights
  • ✓ Last run earned a figure that stands out here
  • ✕ Stable's record with returners is weak (7%)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ARAPAHO GOLD ★ Top Rated
J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods
26%
82%
1.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -68% Winner
2
TRAVELLERS GIRL
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Roger Fell
11%
11%
9.5
 +9% 3rd
3
HARRY WHO
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
11%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37% 4th
4
SCARLET DYNASTY
J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Gemma Tutty
10%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +196% 8th
5
MICKS THE BOY
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
9%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +48% 2nd
—
BRIXWORTH BANDIT NR
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Bryan Smart
8%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +188% Withdrawn
6
THATS ALL RIGHT
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
8%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +112% 9th
7
CLARET TIME
J: Faye McManoman · T: Nigel Tinkler
6%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +55% 7th
8
MANGHAM
J: David Nolan · T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
4%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 10th
9
NOCCALULA FALLS
J: Cam Hardie · T: Paul Midgley
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +57% 6th
10
ROMAN CRYSTAL
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +97% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org