Nottingham 14:00 — Value Analysis

Thursday 2 July 2026 · result below

Nursery GTF 6.0f Class 5 8 runners
🏁 Result: Innichen won (SP 3.5)
Model's most likely PONTE CARLO 26% model chance · market 11%
★ Best value PONTE CARLO model 26% vs market 11% · +137%
How the race unfolded

Innichen (5/2) was always in the right spot and quickened clear, winning by 1.5 lengths. Ziggy Starshine (11/4) chased him home. Our model's top pick PONTE CARLO (26%) finished 5th.

Why the model rates PONTE CARLO top (26% chance)
  • ✓ Form on an upward curve over its last few starts
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✕ Stepping up in class on its last winning level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PONTE CARLO ★ Top Rated
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
26%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +137% 5th
2
KOODINI
J: Oisin Orr · T: Hugo Palmer
24%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +31% 3rd
3
INVINCIBLE ISAAC
J: Jack Callan(3) · T: Lemos De Souza
13%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +26% 6th
4
COURSEYOUDO
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Tom Lacey
9%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +142% 8th
5
HAVANA GREY STAR
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Richard Hughes
8%
12%
8.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29% 4th
6
INNICHEN
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Jack Channon
8%
31%
3.2
 -74% Winner
7
ZIGGY STARSHINE
J: Jack Doughty · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
8%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -70% 2nd
8
YAHAIRA
J: William Cox · T: Tom Dascombe
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5% 7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org