Perth 14:18 — Value Analysis

Thursday 2 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 16.0f Class 4 10 runners
🏁 Result: Scriabin won (SP 2.1)
Model's most likely BOGHA BAISTE 24% model chance · market 8%
⚡ Model standout BOGHA BAISTE model rates it 24% but the market has it an outsider (13.0) — a higher-risk each-way angle.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SCRIABIN is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 45% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Scriabin (11/10) took them along from the start and never saw another rival, winning by a length. Try Them (12/1) chased him home. Our model's top pick BOGHA BAISTE (24%) finished 4th.

Why the model rates BOGHA BAISTE top (24% chance)
  • ✓ Ran above expectations last time — can build on it
  • ✕ Recent form trending the wrong way

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BOGHA BAISTE ★ Top Rated
J: Sean Quinlan · T: Lizzie Quinlan
24%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +206% 4th
2
LIBERTY COACH
J: Harry Cobden · T: John & Sean Quinn
15%
31%
3.2
 -51% 3rd
3
SCRIABIN
J: Patrick Wadge · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
14%
45%
2.2
 -69% Winner
4
DOTTIES PROMISE
J: Nathan Moscrop · T: Susan Corbett
11%
2%
51.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 6th
5
QUINNFINITY
J: Toby Wynne · T: R Mike Smith
10%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 8th
6
TRY THEM
J: Brian Hughes · T: Emmet Mullins
10%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +5% 2nd
7
LUCKIE DEVIL
J: Callum Bewley · T: Nicky Richards
8%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
8
STARSHINE LEGEND
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy
7%
20%
5.0
 -66% 5th
9
MOON REIGN
J: Murray Dodd(7) · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +65% 7th
—
CLANOKRE LASS NR
J: Danny McMenamin · T: Gordon Elliott
4%
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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