Nottingham 14:30 — Value Analysis

Thursday 2 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 6.0f Class 3 6 runners

🏁 Result: Ash Tree won (SP 4.0)

Model's most likely GREY TAMAM 28% model chance · market 18%

★ Best value GREY TAMAM model 28% vs market 18% · +53%

How the race unfolded

Ash Tree (3/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by 1.2 lengths. Nicely (9/1) filled second. Our model's top pick GREY TAMAM (28%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates GREY TAMAM top (28% chance)

✓ No single factor stands out — a close call on the model's figures
✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	GREY TAMAM ★ Top Rated J: Clifford Lee · T: James Tate	28%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+53%	3rd
2	BEARLY BLUE J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Richard Hughes	21%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-7%	5th
3	NICELY J: Rowan Scott · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy	18%	9%	11.0	+94%	2nd
4	ASH TREE J: Cieren Fallon · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam	14%	31%	3.2	-55%	Winner
5	CHIWARA J: Jason Hart · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	12%	25%	4.0	-54%	6th
6	FAIRY WELL J: Edward Greatrex · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam	10%	8%	12.0	+18%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org