Newton Abbot 14:10 — Value Analysis

Friday 3 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 17.0f Class 4 8 runners
🏁 Result: Likewhatyousee won (SP 2.25)
Model's most likely ELATED 54% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value ELATED model 54% vs market 27% · +101%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: LIKEWHATYOUSEE is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 8% vs the market's 44% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Likewhatyousee (5/4) put the race to bed in a matter of strides, winning in a rout — 10 lengths back to the second. Elated (11/4) chased him home. Our model's top pick ELATED (54%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates ELATED top (54% chance)
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✓ Yard readies first-timers - 19% with debutants
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Form figures behind most of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ELATED ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Jones · T: Ben Pauling
54%
27%
3.8
 +101% 2nd
2
FOR HER GLORY
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy
10%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -43% 4th
3
GETMYFRIEND
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
9%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -57% 3rd
4
LIKEWHATYOUSEE
J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr · T: Jonjo & A J O'Neill
8%
44%
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -82% Winner
5
LUNDY VIEW
J: James Davies · T: Nigel Hawke
5%
1%
81.0
 +290% 7th
6
PRINCESS OF BALLEA
J: Harry Reed · T: Daisy Hitchins
4%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +40% 6th
7
STEAL A GLANCE
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Anthony Honeyball
4%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -11% 5th
8
WINTERS HILL
J: Callum Pritchard · T: Joe Tickle
3%
0%
301.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees —

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org