Doncaster 14:00 — Value Analysis

Friday 3 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 4 11 runners

🏁 Result: Jumeirah Storm won (SP 3.25)

Model's most likely JUMEIRAH STORM 40% model chance · market 27%

★ Best value JUMEIRAH STORM model 40% vs market 27% · +51%

How the race unfolded

Jumeirah Storm (9/4) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by half a length. War Gaming (40/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Launch Sequence the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.51 from 5.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model made him its top pick at 40%.

Why the model rates JUMEIRAH STORM top (40% chance)

✓ Jockey riding well - 14% strike rate this two months
✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Ran well last time - finished 4th
✕ Carries plenty of weight today
✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	JUMEIRAH STORM ★ Top Rated J: Neil Callan · T: William Knight	40%	27%	3.8 ▲ Edge increasing	+51%	Winner
2	SULTAN DARIUS J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti	21%	13%	7.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+59%	8th
3	AGRIPPA J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon	7%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-71%	5th
4	KEEP KICKING ON J: David Probert · T: Clive Cox	6%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+10%	4th
5	LAUNCH SEQUENCE J: Sam James · T: K R Burke	6%	22%	4.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-72%	3rd
6	NO MORE PINO J: Edward Greatrex · T: Charlie Pike	5%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-30%	9th
7	WAR GAMING J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott	5%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+109%	2nd
8	BLUE FAITH J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Michael Appleby	4%	5%	19.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-22%	11th
9	BRONDESBURY J: Jack Mitchell · T: Mark Loughnane	4%	1%	96.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+247%	10th
10	MOBADIR J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker	3%	8%	12.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-63%	7th
11	BEAUTY FOR LOVE J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston	2%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-41%	6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org